South Africa’s Macadamia Industry: Time to Rethink the China Strategy

For years, China’s appetite for macadamias helped drive the extraordinary expansion of South Africa’s macadamia industry. But the market is changing rapidly, and farmers can no longer assume that strong Chinese demand will support the prices of the past.

The warning signs are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. FreshPlaza reports that only around 50% of South Africa’s 2026 macadamia crop had been sold at the time of publication, while unsold stocks from previous seasons are adding pressure to storage and cash flow. China, meanwhile, is expected to produce about 108 000 tonnes of dried macadamia nuts-in-shell in 2026, making it both a major producer and the world’s largest consumer.

This does not mean China is closed to South African macadamias. In fact, South Africa’s exports benefit from a temporary zero-tariff arrangement implemented from 1 May 2026. However, China’s growing domestic production means Chinese buyers have more negotiating power and are becoming increasingly selective about imports.

For South African growers, the lesson is clear: market diversification must become a priority.

South Africa exports roughly 95% of its macadamia production, with China historically accounting for about half of exports. The United States and Europe are also important markets, but tariffs, changing trade policies and growing global supply create additional uncertainty.

There are opportunities. SAMAC has been actively pursuing new markets, including India and the Middle East, while industry players report growing sales channels in parts of Asia and Europe. But opening markets takes time, investment and coordinated industry marketing.

For farmers, the immediate focus should be on production efficiency, quality and cost control. Every rand saved through better orchard management, nutrition, irrigation, harvesting and processing can make a difference when margins are under pressure.

The industry also needs to move beyond simply exporting bulk nuts. Greater domestic processing, value-added products and stronger consumer marketing could help turn increasing production into increasing demand.

The era of relying on one dominant buyer may be ending. For South African macadamia farmers, the next phase will require a more disciplined approach: know your costs, protect quality, diversify markets and build an industry that competes on value—not simply volume.